Canadian payments forecast: 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

Objectives of the Study
Research Methodology
A Note on Forecasts
Structure of the Report
Currency
Acknowledgements

THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Economic Growth
Personal Expenditure on Goods  and Services
Retail Sales in Canada

PAYMENTS IN CANADA

Introduction
Cash Payments
Cheques
Debit Card Payments

Cross-border Debit
Outbound
Inbound
Credit Card Payments
Card Issuance and Circulation
Card Volumes
Cardholder Acquisition
Prepaid and Secured Credit Cards
Merchant Acceptance of Credit Cards
Online Payments and Transfers
Online Purchases
Online Payments
Defining Mobile and Contactless Payments
Contactless Payments in Canada
MasterCard PayPass
Visa PayWave
Interac and Contactless Payments
Other Contactless Initiatives
Contactless Payment Transactions
Mobile Payments in Canada
Canadian Consumer Payments in Perspective
Key Developments in the Canadian Payments Industry
Introduction
Fraud
Credit Card Fraud
Debit Card Fraud
Counterfeiting
Duality

Impact of Duality
Increased Regulatory Oversight
The Retailers’ Lobby
Credit Card Business Practices Regulations
The Code of Conduct
The Impact of the Code of Conduct
Payments System Review Task Force
Regulatory Oversight in Perspective
Interac’s Future

PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA

Introduction
Prospects for The Canadian Economy

The Outlook for Gross Domestic Product
Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services
Payments Forecasts
ABM Equipment and Transaction Forecast
Cash Payments Forecast
Cheque Payments Forecast
Debit Card Payments Forecast
Credit Card Payments Forecast
Cross-Border Debit Forecast
Online Payments Forecast
Contactless Payments Forecast
Prospects for Mobile Payments
Payment Forecasts in Context

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List of Figures

Annual Change in GDP (1962 – 2009)
Personal Consumption Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (Q3 1961 – Q1 2010)
Real Annual Change in GDP and Personal Expenditure (1962 – 2009)
Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2009)
Annual Growth in Components of Personal Expenditure (2004 – 2009)
Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2009)
Annual Growth in Retail Sales by Sector (2005 – 2009; 2009)
Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 – 2009)
Number of ABM’s in Canada, by Ownership (2000 – 2009)
Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s In Canada (2000 – 2009)
Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 – 2009)
Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2009)
Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2009)
Number of Interac Direct Payment Users (1992 – 2009)
Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transaction (1992 – 2009)
Preferred Payment Method for Everyday Purchases in Canada (1997 – 2008)
Debit Card Payment Transactions by Sector (2009)
Canadian Travellers to the USA vs. USD/CAD Exchange Rate (1972 – 2009)
Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2004 – 2009)
Foreign Travellers to Canada (1972 – 2009)
International Travellers to Canada from China (1990 – 2009)
Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2009)
Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (1977 – 2009)
Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2000 – 2009)
Annual Volume and Retail Value of VISA/MasterCard Credit Card Transactions (1996 – 2009)
VISA/MasterCard Credit Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1977 – 2009)
VISA/MasterCard Credit Card Transaction Volumes and Net Retail Dollar Volumes (1977 – 2009)
Proportion of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards in Circulation that are Active (1985 – 2009)
Relative Shares of VISA and MasterCard in Canada (2009)
Comparison of VISA and MasterCard Credit Card Activity in Canada (2009)
Credit Card Mail Solicitations to US Households (1990 – 2009)
Credit Card Mail Solicitations to Canadian Households (2007 – 2009)
Canadian Credit Card Loans (1998 – 2009)
Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (1996 – 2009)
Transfer and Bill Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2009)
Share of Transfer and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2009)
Growth by Electronic Channel and Transaction Type (2002 – 2009)
Total Canadian Online Sales (2000 – 2009)
Selected Online Activities of Personal Internet Users in Canada (2005, 2007, 2009)
Canadian Internet Purchases in the Last Three Months (December 2009)
Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2001 – 2009)
Number of Interac Online Merchants by Category (2009 and 2010)
Mobile Phone Handset Configurations for Near Field Communications
Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions  Flowing through the ACSS – Value (1990 – 2009) 80
Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS – Volume (1990 – 2009)
Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2001 – 2009)
Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2001 – 2009)
Consumer Preferences for Payment Method
Reported Incidents of Identity Theft in Canada (2007 – 2009)
Credit Card Fraud in Canada (1983 – 2009)
Credit Card Fraud as a Percentage of Retail and Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1983 – 2009)
Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2009)
Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2005 – 2009; 2007 – 2009)
Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 – 2009)
Credit and Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 – 2009)
Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 – 2009)
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP (2010 – 2014)
Canadian Consumer Confidence Index
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP and PCE (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of ABM’s in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction volumes in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of IDP Debit Cards in Circulation and Number of IDP users (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of IDP Terminals (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transactions (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of Credit Cards in Circulation and Number of Active Cards (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travellers to the USA (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Credit Card and Alternative Payments for Online Purchases (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Contactless Payment Cards and Terminals (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2010 – 2014)
Uptake of Mobile Applications: WAP Promotions vs. Pre-installation (Number of daily sessions)
Forecast Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2010 – 2014)
Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2010 – 2014)
Forecast CAGR for Different Payment Instruments (2009 – 2014)
Forecast Growth for Key Payment Segments (CAGR: 2009 – 2014)

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List of Tables

Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2009)
Credit Card Offerings of Some Major Issuers
Merchant Co-branded Credit Cards In Canada
A Selection of Secured Credit Card Issuers and Offers in Canada
A Selection of Prepaid Credit Card Issuers in Canada
Differences between Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Credit Card Offers in Canada
Online Orders in Canada (2005 to 2009)
Online Purchase Recency (December 2009)
Online Shopping Website Usage by Type (December 2009)
Online Payment Behaviour (December 2009)
Selected Alternative Online Payment Mechanisms
Anchor PayPass Merchants in Canada (July 2010)
Anchor payWave Merchants in Canada (July 2010)
Mobile Payments Initiatives in Canada
Comparison of Debit Card Counterfeit Fraud in 2004 and 2009
Interac’s EMV Migration Targets
Provisions of Canadian Credit Card Business Practices Regulations
Changes to the Cost of Borrowing Regulations
Summary of Policy Elements of Credit and Debit Card Industry Code of Conduct
Payments System Review Task Force Mandate

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