Canadian payments forecast: 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the Study
Research Methodology
A Note on Forecasts
Currency
Acknowledgements

THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT
Economic Growth
Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services
Retail Sales in Canada

PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
Cash Payments
Cheques
Debit Card Payments
Cross-border Debit
Credit Card Payments
Card Issuance and Circulation
Card Volumes
Cardholder Acquisition and Churn
Merchant Acceptance of Credit Cards
The Prepaid and Gift Card Markets
Open-Loop Prepaid/Gift Cards
Closed-Loop Gift Cards
Online Payments and Transfers
Online Purchases
Online Payments
Mobile Payments in Canada
Contactless Payments in Canada
Canadian Consumer Payments in Perspective

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY
Introduction
Fraud
Credit Card Fraud
Debit Card Fraud
Counterfeiting
Payments System Review Task Force
The Competition Tribunal Case

PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
Prospects for the Canadian Economy
The Outlook for Gross Domestic Product
Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services
Payments Forecasts
ABM Equipment and Transaction Forecast
Cash Payments Forecast
Cheque Payments Forecast
Debit Card Payments Forecast
Credit Card Payments Forecast
Prepaid Cards and Gift Cards
Cross-Border Debit Forecast
Online Payments Forecast
Contactless Payments Forecast
Prospects for Mobile Payments
Payment Forecasts in Context

List of Figures
Annual Change in GDP (1983 – 2011)
Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2011)
Annual Change in GDP and PCE (1983 – 2011)
Personal Consumption Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (1982 – 2011)
Annual Change in Components of PCE (2004 – 2011)
Nominal Growth in Retail Sales and GDP (2000 – 2011)
Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2011)
Growth in Retail Trade by Segment (2006 – 2011)
Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 – 2011)
Number of ABM’s in Canada, by Ownership (2000 – 2011)
Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s In Canada (2000 – 2011)
Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2000 – 2011)
Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (1992 – 2011)
Volume and Value of Interac Debit Transactions (2000 – 2011)
Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2000 – 2011)
Canadian Travellers to the USA vs. USD/CAD Exchange Rate (2000 – 2011)
Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travellers to the USA (2004 – 2011)
Foreign Travellers to Canada (2000 – 2011)
Travellers from China to Canada (2000 – 2011)
Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2011)
Number of Visa and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Annual Volume and Value of Visa/MasterCard Credit Card Transactions (1996 – 2011)
Visa/MasterCard Credit Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (2000 – 2011)
Visa/MasterCard Credit Card Transaction Volumes and Net Retail Dollar Volume (1977 – 2011)
Proportion of Active Visa and MasterCard Credit Cards in Circulation (1985 – 2011)
Comparison of Major Credit Card Activity in Canada (2011)
Channels of Awareness for a New Credit Card (2011)
Distribution Channel for New Card Applications (2011)
Canadian Credit Card Loans (1998 – 2011)
Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa or MasterCard (1996 – 2011)
Canadian Prepaid/Gift Card Market (2006 – 2011)
Open-Loop Gift Card Market (2011)
Share of Redeemed Value by Retailer Type – Closed-Loop Gifts Cards (2011)
Average Spend per Closed-Loop Gift Card by Category (2010)
Average Percentage Spent Over the Value of the Gift Card (2010)
Average Number of Weeks to Gift Card Redemption by Merchant Category (2010)
Transfers and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2011)
Share of Transfer and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2011)
Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (2006 – 2011)
Canadian Online Orders (2010)
Payment methods Used for Online Orders (2010)
Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2001 – 2011)
Number of Interac Online Merchants by Category (2009 and 2011)
Mobile Phone Penetration in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Number of Mobile Phone Subscribers in Canada (2000 – 2011)
Contactless Payments Cards and Terminals (2007 – 2011)
Contactless Payments Values and Volumes (2007 – 2011)
Share of Value of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS – Value (1990 – 2011)
Share of Volume Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS – Volume (1990 – 2011)
Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2001 – 2011)
Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2001 – 2011)
Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2010)
Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2005 – 2010; 2009 – 2010)
Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 – 2011)
Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 – 2011)
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP (2012 – 2016)
Canadian Consumer Confidence Index (2006-2012)
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP and PCE (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of ABM’s in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction volumes in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of Interac Debit Monthly Users (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Volume and Value of Interac Debit Transactions (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of Credit Cards in Circulation and Number of Active Cards (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Volume and Value of Visa/MasterCard Credit Card Transactions (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Value redeemed on Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travellers to the USA (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Credit Card and Alternative Payments for Online Purchases (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Contactless Payment Cards and Terminals (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2012 – 2016)
Smartphone Market Share by Operating System (December 2011)
Forecast NFC Handset Penetration in Canada (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2012 – 2016)
Forecast Annual Growth Rate for Different Payment Instruments (2011 – 2016)
Forecast Growth for Key Payment Segments (CAGR, %: 2011 – 2016)

List of Tables

Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2011)
Relative Shares of Major Credit Card Brands in Canada (2011)
Visa and MasterCard Acquirers in Canada (2011)
Online Orders in Canada (2010 and 2011)
Interac’s EMV Migration Targets
Payments System Review Task Force Mandate
Payments System Review Task Force Recommendations
Task Force Recommendations: What’s Likely to Happen?

 

 

 

 

 

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