Canadian payments forecast: 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the Study
Research Methodology
A Note on Forecasts
Currency
Structure and Content of the Report
Acknowledgements

THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT
Economic Growth
Personal Consumption Expenditure
Retail Sales in Canada

PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
Cash Payments
Cheque Payments
Debit Card Payments
Credit Card Payments
Contactless Payments
Online Payments
Bill Payments and Transfers
Mobile Payments
Prepaid and Gift Cards
Person-to-Person (P2P) Payments
Remittances
Consumer Payments in Perspective

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY
Fraud
Credit Card Fraud
Debit Card Fraud
Counterfeiting
Regulatory Forces
Code of Conduct
The Competition Tribunal Case
Prepaid Regulations
Regulations Amending Credit Business Practices


PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Prospects for The Economy
Payments Forecasts
Cash Forecast
Cheque Payments Forecast
Debit Card Payments Forecast
Credit Card Payments Forecast
Contactless Payments Forecast
Online Payments Forecast
Bill Payments and Transfers Forecast
Mobile Payments Forecast
Prepaid Cards and Gift Cards Forecast
P2P Payments Forecast
Remittances Forecast
Payment Forecasts in Context

APPENDIX – Supplementary Data
Interac Cashback
Contactless Payments
Online Payments
Bill Payments and Transfers
Mobile Payments
P2P Payments
Remittances

List of Figures
Annual Change in GDP (1983-2012)
Components of Personal Consumption Expenditure (2012)
Annual Change in GDP and PCE (1986-2012)
Annual Real Change in Components of PCE (2004-2012)
Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2012)
Nominal Growth in Retail Sales and GDP (2000-2012)
Growth in Retail Trade by Segment (CAGR: 2007-2012)Table 2: Cash Indicators
Canadian Bank Notes and Coins in Circulation (2000-2012)
Number of ABMs in Canada by Ownership (2000-2012)
Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2000-2012)
Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2000-2012)
Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000-2012)
Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000-2012)
Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2001-2012)
Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2001-2012)
Volume and Value of Interac Debit Transactions (2001-2012)
Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2001-2012)
Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2012)
Comparison of Major Credit Card Activity in Canada (2012)
Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2001-2012)
Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2001-2012)
Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2001-2012)
Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2001-2012)
Canadian Credit Card Loans (2001-2012)
Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2001-2012)
Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2007-2012)
Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2007-2012)
Awareness and Ownership of Contactless Card Brands in Canada
Usage of Contactless Payment Cards, by Brand
Usage of Contactless Payment Cards at Merchants
Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2001-2012)
Use of Devices for the On-line Shopping Journey
Categories of Canadian Online Purchases
Share of Expenditure, by Region, Amongst Canadians who Purchase Online
Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002-2012)
Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002-2012)
Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (CAGR: 2007-2012)
Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2001-2012)
Smart Phone Operating System Ownership
Services Available on Smart Phone
Payments made Using a Smart Phone
Showrooming by Canadian Smart Phone Subscribers
Canadian Prepaid/Gift Card Market (2006-2012)
Open-Loop Prepaid Card Market (2012)
Share of Purchased Value by Retailer Type, Closed-Loop Gift Cards: Canada (2012)
Average Spend per Closed-Loop Gift Card by Category (2011 vs. 2012)
Average Gift Card Overspend by Retailer Type (2012)
Reasons for Purchasing an E-Gift Card (2012)
Volume and Value of P2P Transactions (2008-2012)
P2P Services Used in Canada
Value and Volume of International Remittances (2008-2012)
Services Used for International Remittances
Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2001-2012)
Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2001-2012)
Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2012)
Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2007-2012; 2011-2012)
Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002-2012)
Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996-2012)
Forecast Real Growth in GDP (2013-2017)
Consumer Confidence Index (Dec. 2006 - Apr. 2013)
Forecast Real Growth in GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (2013-2017)
Forecast Real Growth in Retail Sales and PCE (2013-2017)
Forecast Number of ABMs in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2013-2017)
Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2013-2017)
Forecast Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2001-2012)
Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2013-2017)
Forecast Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2013-2017)
Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes ( 2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2013-2017)
Forecast Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2012-2017)
Forecast Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast NFC Handset Penetration in Canada (2013-2017)
Forecast Purchased Value of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2013-2017)
Forecast Volume and Value of P2P Transactions (2013-2017)
Forecast Value and Volume of International Remittances (2012-2017)
Forecast Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2013-2017)
Forecast Number of Payment Transaction by Payment Instrument Type (2013-2017)
Forecast Annual Growth Rates for Primary Payment Instruments (CAGR % p.a.: 2012-2017)
Forecast Growth for Secondary Payment Segments (CAGR: 2012-2017)

APPENDIX
Distribution of Amount Withdrawn: Interac Cashback
Distribution of the Number Interac Cashback Withdrawals (P6M)
Distribution of Contactless Payment Transaction Values
Distribution of Contactless Payment Usage Frequency
Reasons for Shopping Online
Reasons Driving the Decision Not to Purchase Online
Concerns Amongst Canadian Shoppers and Buyers Regarding Online Purchasers
Mobile Phone Penetration in Canada (2000-2012)
Ownership of Mobile Devices
Frequency of Sending P2P Payments
Distribution of Number of P2P Services Used
Distribution of P2P Transfer Values
Distribution of International Remittance Frequency
Distribution of Remittance Services Used
Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing Through the ACSS (1990-2012)
Share of Volume of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing Through the ACSS (1990-2012)

List of Tables

Economic Indicators
Cash Indicators
Personal Cheques Indicators
Debit Card Payments Indicators
Credit Card Payments Indicators
Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2013)
Relative Shares of Major Credit Card Brands in Canada (2012)
Visa and MasterCard Acquirers in Canada (2012)
Contactless Payment Indicators
Online Payment Indicators
Transfer and Bill Payment Indicators
Mobile Payment Indicators
Prepaid Indicators
P2P Payment Indicators
Remittances Indicators
Primary Payment Instruments
Secondary Payment Instruments
Fraud Indicators
Interac's EMV Migration Targets
Forecast Economic Indicators
Forecast Primary Payment Instruments
Forecast Secondary Payment Instruments
Forecast Cash Indicators
Forecast Cheque Payment Indicators
Forecast Debit Indicators
Forecast Credit Indicators
Forecast Contactless Payment Indicators
Forecast Online Payment Indicators
Forecast Transfers and Bill Payment Indicators
Forecast Mobile Payment Indicators
Forecast Prepaid Indicators
Forecast P2P Payment Indicators
Forecast Remittances Indicators
Forecast Primary Payment Instruments
Forecast Secondary Payment Instruments

APPENDIX
Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel

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