Canadian payments forecast: 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the Study
Research Methodology
Desk Research
Executive Interviews
Consumer Research
Analysis
A Note on Forecasts
Currency
Acknowledgements

THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT
Economic Highlights
Economic Growth
Personal Consumption Expenditure
Retail Sales in Canada

PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
Cash Payments
Cash: Highlights
Cash Analysis

Cheques
Cheques: Highlights
Cheques: Analysis

Debit Card Payments
Debit Card Payments: Highlights
Debit Card Payments: Analysis

Credit Card Payments
Credit Card Payments: Highlights
Credit Card Payments: Analysis

Contactless Payments
Contactless Payments: Highlights
Contactless Payments: Analysis

Online Payments
Online Payments: Highlights
Online Payments: Analysis

Bill Payments and Transfers
Bill Payments and Transfers: Highlights
Bill Payments and Transfers: Analysis

Mobile Payments
Mobile Payments: Highlights
Mobile Payments: Analysis

Prepaid and Gift Cards
Prepaid and Gift Cards: Highlights
Prepaid and Gift Cards: Analysis

Person-to-Person (P2P) Payments
P2P Payments: Highlights
P2P Payments: Analysis

Remittances
Remittances: Highlights
Remittances: Analysis

Pre-authorized Payments
Pre-authorized Payments: Highlights
Pre-authorized Payments: Analysis

Consumer Payments in Perspective
Payments in Perspective: Analysis

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY
Introduction
Fraud
Credit Card Fraud
Debit Card Fraud
Counterfeiting

Cryptocurrencies
Regulatory Forces
Federal Prepaid Card Regulations
Code of Conduct
Credit Business Practices Regulations
The Competition Tribunal Case
Payment Clearing and Settlement Systems
Restructuring of Interac Payment Association

PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Prospects for the Economy
Economic Prospects: Highlights
Prospects for the Canadian Economy: Analysis
Payments Forecast
Cash Forecast
Cheque Payments Forecast
Debit Card Payments Forecast
Credit Card Payments Forecast
Contactless Payments Forecast
Online Payments Forecast
Bill Payments and Transfers Forecast
Mobile Payments Forecast
Prepaid Cards and Gift Cards Forecast
P2P Payments Forecast
Remittance Forecast
Payments Forecast in Context

Appendix
Cash
Cheques
Credit Cards
Contactless Payments
Online
Bill Payments and Transfers
Mobile
Prepaid Cards
P2P
Remittances
ACSS

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List of Figures

Annual Change in GDP (1983 – 2013)  
Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2013)
Annual Change in GDP and PCE (1983 – 2013)
Annual Change in Components of PCE (2004 – 2013)  
Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2013)
Nominal Growth in Retail Sales and GDP (2000 – 2013)             
Growth in Retail Trade by Segment (Growth in 2013; CAGR 2008-2013)           
Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 – 2013)      
Number of ABMs in Canada, by Ownership (2000 – 2013)        
Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2000 – 2013)       
Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2000 – 2013)
Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 – 2013)     
Volume and Value of Small Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2013)            
Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2001 – 2013)     
Reason for Using Personal Cheques (P12M)     
Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2001 – 2013)        
Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2001 – 2013)             
Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2001 – 2013)           
Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2001-2013)   
Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2001 – 2013)    
Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2001 – 2013)            
Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2001 – 2013)   
Canadian Credit Card Loans (2001 – 2013)       
Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2001-2013)      
Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2007 – 2013)              
Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2007 – 2013)          
Awareness of Contactless Card Brands in Canada           
Ownership of Contactless Card Brands in Canada           
Usage of Contactless Payment Cards, by Brand
Usage of Contactless Payments Cards at Merchants (P6M)       
Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2001 – 2013)
Payment Methods for Online Purchases (P12M)           
Categories of Online Purchases (P12M)
Online Purchases by Region     
Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2013)
Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2013)
Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (CAGR: 2008 – 2013)         
Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2000 – 2013)            
Smartphone Operating System Ownership (2014)
Services Available on Mobile Phone (2014)
Payment Applications Installed on Smartphones (2014)           
Volume and Value of Mobile Transactions (2009 – 2013)
Payments Made Using a Smartphone
Retail Activities on Smartphone
Purchased Value of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2006 – 2013)
Volume of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2006 – 2013)
Categories of Gift Cards Purchased (P12M)
Value of P2P Transactions (2008 – 2013)
Volume of P2P Transactions (2008 – 2013)
Methods of Payment (P6M)     
Value of Transactions by Payment Method
Reasons for Transfer (P6M)     
Payment Recency
Value and Volume of International Remittances (2008 – 2013)              
Services Used for International Remittances (2012; 2013)
Remittances by Region (P12M)
Volume and Value of AFT Debits (1993 – 2013)
Pre-authorized Bill Payments
Pre-authorized Bill Payments with a Credit Card           
Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2001 – 2013)
Number of Payment Transactions by Instrument Type (2001 – 2013)               
Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2013)          
Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (CAGR: 2008 – 2013; 2012 – 2013)
Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 – 2013)
Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 – 2013)
Current Awareness, Familiarity and Usage of Cryptocurrencies             
Consumer Likes and Dislikes of Cryptocurrencies         
Forecast Real Growth in GDP (2014 – 2018)
Canadian Consumer Confidence Index (December 2006 to May 2014)
Forecast Real Growth in GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Real Growth in Retail Sales and PCE (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Number of ABMs in Canada by Ownership (2000 – 2013)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2014 – 2018)  111
Forecast Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2014 – 2018)  
Forecast Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel
Forecast Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume and Value of Mobile Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast NFC Handset Penetration in Canada (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Purchased Value of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Value of P2P Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Volume of P2P Transactions (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Value and Volume of International Remittances (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2014 – 2018)
Forecast Annual Growth Rates for Primary Payment Instruments (CAGR: 2013 – 2018)
Forecast Growth for Secondary Payment Instruments (CAGR: 2013 – 2018)

 

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List of Tables

Economic Indicators
Cash Payment Indicators
Personal Cheque Payment Indicators
Debit Card Payment Indicators
Credit Card Payment Indicators
Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2014)
Visa and MasterCard Acquirers in Canada (2013)           
Contactless Card Payment Indicators
Online Payment Indicators
Transfers and Bill Payment Indicators
Mobile Payment Indicators
Prepaid Card Payment Indicators
P2P Payment Indicators
Remittance Indicators
Pre-authorized Payment Indicators
Primary Payment Instruments
Secondary Payment Instruments
Selected Vertical Market Indicators
Fraud Indicators
Forecast Economic Indicators
Forecast Primary Payment Instruments
Forecast Secondary Payment Instruments       
Forecast: Selected Vertical Markets
Forecast Cash Payment Indicators
Forecast Personal Cheque Payment Indicators
Forecast Debit Card Payment Indicators
Forecast Credit Card Payment Indicators
Forecast Contactless Card Payment Indicators
Forecast Online Payment Indicators
Forecast Transfers and Bill Payment Indicators
Forecast Mobile Payment Indicators
Forecast P2P Payment Indicators
Forecast Remittance Indicators

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