Canadian payments forecast: 2009

TABLE OF CONTENTS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the Study
Research Methodology
A Note on Forecasts
Currency
Acknowledgements

PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
Cash Payments
Cheques
Debit Card Payments
Cross-border Debit
Credit Card Payments
Card Issuance and Circulation
Card Volumes
Cardholder Acquisition
Prepaid and Secured Credit Cards
Merchant Acceptance of Credit Cards
Online Payments and Transfers
Online Purchases
Online Payments
Mobile and Contactless Payments 54
MasterCard PayPass
Visa PayWave
Other Mobile Payments Initiatives in Canada
Canadian Consumer Payments in Perspective

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY
Introduction
Fraud
Credit Card Fraud
Debit Card Fraud
Cheque Fraud
Counterfeiting
Duality
Impact of Non-Duality
Impact of Duality
Duality and EMV
Interchange and the Merchant Discount Rate
Interac as a ‘for-profit’ Company

PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA
Introduction
The Canadian Economy
The Outlook for Gross Domestic Product
Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services
Retail Sales in Canada
Payments Forecasts
ABM Equipment and Transaction Forecast
Cash Payments Forecast
Cheque Payments Forecast
Debit Card Payments Forecast
Credit Card Payments Forecast
Cross-Border Debit Forecast
Online Payments Forecast
Mobile and Contactless Payments Forecast
Payments Forecasts in Context

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List of Figures
Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 – 2008)
Number of ABM’s in Canada, by Ownership (2000 – 2008)
Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s In Canada (2000 – 2008)
Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 – 2008)
Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2008)
Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 – 2008)
Number of Interac Direct Payment Users (1992 – 2008)
Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transaction (1992 – 2008) 14
Debit Card Payment Transactions by Sector (2007)
Share of Number of Transactions at Retail Outlets (1996 and 2007)
Share of Transaction Values at retail Outlets (1996 and 2007)
Canadian Travelers to the USA vs. USD/CAD Exchange Rate (1972 – 2008)
Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2004 – 2008)
Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2008)
Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (1977 – 2008)
Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2000 – 2008)
VISA/MasterCard Transaction Volumes and Net Retail Volume (1977 – 2008)
Relative Shares of VISA and MasterCard In Canada (2008)
Comparison of VISA and MasterCard Credit Card Activity in Canada (2008)
Credit Card Mail Solicitations to US Households (1990 – 2008)
Canadian Credit Card Loans (1998 – 2008)
Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (1996 – 2008)
Transfer and Bill Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2008)
Share of Transfer and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 – 2008)
Total Canadian Online Sales (2000 – 2008)
Selected Online Activities of Home Internet Users in Canada (2005 and 2007)
Online Canadian Consumer Ordering Patterns (2005 and 2007)
Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2001 – 2008)
Number of Interac Online Merchants by Category
Mobile Phone Handset Configurations for Near Field Communications
Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS – Value (1990 – 2007)
Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS – Volume (1990 – 2007)
Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2001 – 2008)
Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2001 – 2008)
Consumer Preferences for Payment Method
Credit Card Fraud in Canada (1983 – 2008)
Credit Card Fraud as a Percentage of Retail and Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1983 – 2008)
Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2007)
Credit and Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 – 2008)
Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 – 2008)
Annual Change in GDP and Personal Expenditure (1962 – 2008)
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP (2009 – 2013)
Canadian Consumer Confidence Index
Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP and PCE (2009 – 2013)
Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2008)
US Consumer Spending Cutbacks in Recessions
Canadian Non-Auto Retail Sales by Sector, 2008
Average Annual Growth in Retail Sales by Sector (2001 – 2008)
Projected Growth in Canadian Retail Sales (2009)
Forecast Number of ABM’s in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction volumes in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Number of Debit Cards in Circulation and Number of IDP users (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Number of IDP Terminals (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transactions (2009 – 2013) 101
Forecast Number of Credit Cards in Circulation and Number of Active Cards (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Credit Card and Alternative Payments for Online Purchases (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Contactless Payment Cards and Terminals (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2009 – 2013)
Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2009 – 2013)
Forecast CAGR for Different Payment Instruments (2008 – 2013)
Forecast Growth for Key Payment Segments (CAGR: 2008 – 2013)

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List of Tables
Debit Card Payment by Sector (2007)
Shares of Debit Card Payments by Sector (2007)
Terminal Intensity and Transaction Volume and Value Averages by Sector (2007)
Change in Debit Card Locations, Terminal, Transactions and Values from 2005 to 2007
Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2008)
Canadian Tire Financial Services Credit Card Portfolio vs. VISA/MasterCard Universe (2008)
Credit Card Loans of the Major Credit Card Issuers in Canada (2008)
Secured Credit Card Issuers and Offers in Canada
Prepaid Credit Card Issuers in Canada
Differences between Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Credit Cards Offers in Canada
Online Orders in Canada (2005 and 2007)
Characteristics of Selected Alternative Online Payment Mechanisms
Global PayPass Statistics (Q3 2008)
Anchor PayPass Merchants in Canada
VISA payWave Statistics (Q2 2008)

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